South Africa enters the 2026/27 summer agricultural season in a significantly stronger position than during the devastating 2015/16 drought, despite warnings that a potentially powerful El Niño event could threaten crop production, livestock farming, and food security.

This was the assessment of agricultural industry leaders, researchers, and government officials who attended a high-level drought preparedness meeting convened by the presidential envoy on agriculture and land Wandile Sihlobo earlier this week.

The meeting, supported by the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) and Bayer, a crop-science company, heard forecasts point to a strong El Niño event, potentially arriving earlier than usual. Warmer and drier conditions are expected across South Africa's principal summer rainfall regions, particularly during the latter part of the agricultural season.

The Free State, North West, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo are considered especially vulnerable because of their importance to national grain production. Prolonged dry conditions could also reduce grazing availability, place livestock under heat stress, and increase pressure on farmers’ finances.

However, the agricultural sector has several important advantages compared with the situation a decade ago. Major dams were approximately 90% full in early October, recent rainfall has replenished soil moisture, and grain stocks remain favourable.

Farmers have also invested in precision agriculture, mechanisation, improved seed varieties, and conservation farming practices, strengthening their ability to withstand adverse weather conditions.

NAMC chief executive Dr Simphiwe Ngqangweni cautioned that strong water reserves would provide greater protection to irrigated agriculture than to farmers dependent on rainfall.

The potential drought comes as producers already face substantial financial pressures from fertiliser, fuel, and financing costs. Smallholder and emerging farmers are especially vulnerable because of limited access to affordable insurance, credit, and financial reserves.

Participants recommended strengthening early warning systems, improving water management, encouraging soil moisture conservation, and expanding access to agricultural finance and insurance.

Sihlobo said the sector’s favourable starting position was encouraging, although coordinated preparation remained essential.

The recommendations will now inform government drought preparedness planning ahead of the summer production season, with further consultations planned between government, financial institutions, and agricultural industry bodies.